Is WiMax In Trouble? - Things aren't looking up for well-hyped tech
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Is WiMax In Trouble?
Things aren't looking up for well-hyped tech
(old news - 09:12AM Friday Nov 30 2007)
tags: business · wireless · alternatives · bandwidth · networking
Verizon's selection of LTE as their next-generation broadband standard has some outlets (like like Fortune) insisting that WiMax is officially in trouble. It wasn't supposed to be this way; if you flash back to earlier this decade, WiMax was supposed to do everything from cure cancer to potty train your toddlers. In 2004, Intel called the technology "the most important thing since the Internet itself."

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It's now almost 2008, and AT&T is only using WiMax as a limited rural DSL alternative. The nation's largest WiMax company (Clearwire) still doesn't have all that many customers, and our user reviews for their existing service have never been very positive. Their mobile WiMax network remains largely unbuilt.

Sprint, who was supposed to be the biggest proponent of WiMax, just fired the CEO who championed the technology, and is facing financial and customer service headaches. They recently scrapped a cooperative plan with Clearwire, and their investors are whining about deployment costs for their Xohm WiMax service.

It's pretty clear the technology has stumbled out of the gate, despite Intel's marketing bravado. WiMax supporters seem to be clinging increasingly to foreign deployment as a cause for optimism.
WiMax proponents, such as Dr. Mohammad S. Shakouri, a member of the board of the WiMax Forum, like to point out that Sprint is by no means the only company pursuing WiMax, and that globally, the standard is on track to reach critical mass. . .Dr. Shakouri says more than 500 operators have WiMax licenses, and that there are more than 275 operators (most of them little, regional players) trying out the technology in some 65-plus countries.
Of course even in some of these foreign markets, WiMax isn't faring particularly well, leaving us to wonder if a decade of WiMax hype was little more than sound and fury, signifying nothing.

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greendragon @ 30th Nov 09:46AM:
The lines are blurring, but...

The lines between cell phone service and high speed internet are blurring, but I'm not sure that WiMax is in "trouble". Maybe from the standpoint of being widely adopted by the phone companies, but not from others.

I am very interested in the technology for point to point solutions. The bonus for me is the mobility. I'm looking at WiMax as an addition to a Wifi infrastructure.

Is it dieing? Maybe in some applications, but people will find the right market for it.
--
Folding for our future!!

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garmst @ 30th Nov 09:51AM:
And what is the problem suposed to be here?

This is like saying that the arrival of DSL will doom T-1's.

These two technologies address different markets and needs. And like adoption is supposed to be overnight and non-eventful.

There's got to be something more interesting to talk about out there.....
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openbox9 @ 30th Nov 09:51AM:
Re: The lines are blurring, but...

It's kind of hard for WiMax to die if it was never really born. If WiMax actually saw widespread deployment and then the decision was made to move away from the technology, that's one thing. But this is simply an over-hyped technology that hasn't been fruitful.
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gaforces @ 30th Nov 09:54AM:
Wimax

Give Wimax to the public and let the corporate hoes use thier LTE and choke on it.

We could build out our own Wimax networks to bypass all the money grubbers who want to charge by the byte, charge extra for every little thing you do on a smartphone.

Its not like oil or gas, we are not going to run out of internet.
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openbox9 @ 30th Nov 09:59AM:
Re: Wimax

You aren't prevented from deploying your own WiMax network if you'd like.
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tmc8080 @ 30th Nov 10:01AM:
last mile leapfrog...

Wimax probably did itself in with MEGA HIGH upfront costs of deployment. If the cellular carriers were REALLY interested in the technology and the costs were 'right' it would have been a done deal.... but much like many of the DSL technologies, $$-greed-$$ can be it's OWN WORST ENEMY/DETRACTOR...

Besides, we're already hearing rumblings of the NEXT generation of wireless technologies going up into the gigabit plus data rates (think 4G on space shuttle rocket engines).. who's going to care about a long-distance few hundred megabit technology which has gone done the too little, too late, too costly road of obsolescence. 3-5 years in technology is a long time to "standardize" and schmooze industries to buy something... if your not convincing anyone it's time to vaporize it and move on to next generation technologies.

One way wimax could have worked is if it were paired with a relatively popular and costly product line such as the Iphone. But, alas.. AT&T already has that albatross called u-verse to invest in..
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gaforces @ 30th Nov 10:09AM:
Re: Wimax

said by openbox9 :

You aren't prevented from deploying your own WiMax network if you'd like.
Tell me when Wimax routers are in the ~100$ range, and someone donates the spectrum for the public, then deployment will commence minus the mini-vacuum cleaners hooked directly to our bank accounts.

This could make Video communication a reality, we are being held back by squabbling over how much money they can make off it, and the government wanting to control everything to do with communication.
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greendragon @ 30th Nov 10:36AM:
Re: The lines are blurring, but...

It may have been hyped a lot, maybe even over hyped, but it has a lot of powerful backers like Intel. I don't think this is the end of WiMax. It will just have a slower roll out in possibly different areas.
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jlsamsel @ 30th Nov 10:38AM:
Deployment

Where has WiMax been deployed so far (honest question)?

Are they covering areas where DSL/Cable/Fiber is readily available? I mean, it's nice to have choice of services, but if an area has been wired for some time and people are happy with what they have because of the quality and/or price, they have probably encouraged their friends and family to sign up for the same.

I'm sure there's room for some competition even in those kind of areas, but I thought WiMax was supposed to be mostly for the mobile user and the under-served rural places wires won't be offered?
--
Hulloooo, Zeba Neighba...

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greendragon @ 30th Nov 11:15AM:
Re: Deployment

This is/was a early deployment and like you said mostly people in rural areas are using it...

»www.midwestwireless.com/clearwave/

Here's the coverage map:

»www.midwestwireless.com/clearwav···emap.php

Right now I see having a dsl/cable line to the house as normal for broadband. In the future I think it will be more normal to have a mobile plan and less likely that the majority will have a "fixed" internet plan.
--
Folding for our future!!

reply
openbox9 @ 30th Nov 11:17AM:
Re: Wimax

So you want a new technology and you want it for almost free? That's not how things work, especially after a lot of money and effort has already been put into the technology. Those costs will be recouped somehow. Technology always costs a small fortune initially and then becomes bearable over time as it is deployed.
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travelguy @ 30th Nov 11:31AM:
Re: Wimax

said by openbox9 :

You aren't prevented from deploying your own WiMax network if you'd like.
Any suggestions of where to locate equipment and spectrum licensing? I've always been interested in Wimax for a rural private network application, but haven't found any sources of equipment of even guidelines on how to get started.
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gaforces @ 30th Nov 11:50AM:
Re: Wimax

said by openbox9 :

So you want a new technology and you want it for almost free? That's not how things work, especially after a lot of money and effort has already been put into the technology. Those costs will be recouped somehow. Technology always costs a small fortune initially and then becomes bearable over time as it is deployed.
Do you pay a rental charge for your water pipes, and another charge for every gallon that goes through the pipes, then on top of that pay for the amount you used?
Extra to take a shower, Extra to use a dishwasher, sprinkler charge? Extra for every water heater?
The water companys like money too, but they dont go that far to get into our bank accounts.
--
‘Do ye, quieting in your bosoms your strong hearts,
Who of many good things have had your fill even to surfeit,
With what is moderate nourish your mighty desire; for neither will
We yield, nor shall you have all else as you wish.’
Solon

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gaforces @ 30th Nov 11:54AM:
Re: Wimax

Can start here >> »www.wimaxforum.org/home/ and the spectrum >> »www.wisoa.net/
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travelguy @ 30th Nov 12:00PM:
Re: Wimax

Thanks!
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openbox9 @ 30th Nov 12:09PM:
Re: Wimax

What are you talking about?
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gaforces @ 30th Nov 12:16PM:
Re: Wimax

said by openbox9 :

What are you talking about?
Just an idea, if Wimax is going to get pushed out of the market by the big dogs, they might as well donate (open source) it to the public and make money off the thousands of products that could interact with Wimax.
It would be a big hit.
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openbox9 @ 30th Nov 12:23PM:
Re: Wimax

The "big dogs" are the hardware vendors that will be producing the radios. Who cares if telecoms deploy WiMax, they're already irrelevant since they're moving on to new/different technology. If WiMax does anything, it will be by the WISP community, IMO.
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gaforces @ 30th Nov 12:31PM:
Re: Wimax

said by openbox9 :

The "big dogs" are the hardware vendors that will be producing the radios. Who cares if telecoms deploy WiMax, they're already irrelevant since they're moving on to new/different technology. If WiMax does anything, it will be by the WISP community, IMO.
Nope, the big dogs are the baby bells with LTE. Wimax is just another upstart intruding into thier business.
--
‘Do ye, quieting in your bosoms your strong hearts,
Who of many good things have had your fill even to surfeit,
With what is moderate nourish your mighty desire; for neither will
We yield, nor shall you have all else as you wish.’
Solon

reply
openbox9 @ 30th Nov 12:40PM:
Re: Wimax

That's why I said who cares about the telcos since they are, or already have moved past WiMax.
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anon @ 30th Nov 01:22PM:
CMDA is real Question

The real issue is that CDMA phones may be going the way of the dinosaur unless something happens to evolve them into birds pretty soon.

Will Verizon be supporting both CDMA and LTE for awhile?

Will Sprint throw in the towel and adapt LTE also to minimize cost of developing new phones?
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baileysl @ 30th Nov 02:58PM:
Re: CMDA is real Question

I hope that Sprint does throw in the towel and adapt LTE. I was on board for WiMax; but since Sprint will be the only major carrier not on LTE we won't get any good phones. The phone manufacturers will not have any incentive to provide Sprint with phones in a timely matter. The said part about it, Sprint has the best data plan; true unlimited data for $15 a month.

Sheila
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kcir @ 30th Nov 07:12PM:
WiMAX-2

Then will come WiMax-2 and the cycle of nothing getting deployed will continue to roll on.
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anon @ 1st Dec 04:17PM:
Take a step back

Rarely does a technology catch fire right off the bat. If it does, it probably filled a need that had never been filled before. WiMax obviously doesn't do that, hence the hesitation in its adoption. What it does do is provide an interesting way of interconnecting and providing significant bandwidth for wide-area WiFi networks backhaul. I think this is the niche market that it will find itself in eventually. Of course it will have to go through the same kind of unfriendly press and investors it has been getting for years in order to finally reach this market. As WiFi improves in terms of bandwidth and QOS (Maybe the FCC can bite off a little extra spectrum for unlicensed use :uhh:)and population density makes traditional cells financially unviable we may even see the beginning of the end for cell phone companies. Unless of course they make moves to mitigate the effect of WiFi on their outdated and ripoff business models (a la T-Mobile Hotspots)...
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